Selling Certainty in Uncertain Times: Why Retail Media Networks Should Lean into Outcomes Now

With U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods climbing higher, potential for price increases, supply chain snarls persisting, and macroeconomic uncertainty, marketers are on edge. Global advertising budgets are already tightening, and brands are zeroing in on channels that deliver measurable bang for their buck. Enter retail media networks (RMNs)—uniquely positioned to sell not just ad space, but outcomes like a 400% return on ad spend (ROAS) or even a cost-per-order (CPO).

At Moloco, our machine learning platform has powered advertisers to hit these targets with precision, leveraging real-time inferences and first-party data. As global ad spend wavers, RMNs that connect ads to transactions and guarantee returns are set to thrive.

“The game’s changed,” said a VP at a top-tier RMN. “In this economy, advertisers won’t settle for reach—they’re demanding revenue. Retail media can deliver that certainty.”

Here’s why now’s the time for RMNs to lean into outcomes—and how they can pull it off.

1. Global Ad Spend Is Pro-Cyclical—But It’s Shifting Toward Certainty

Advertising spend has long mirrored economic cycles. According to GroupM’s 2025 forecast, global ad spend will eclipse $1 trillion this year for the first time, a modest 5.8% increase from 2024—down from the 10.2% surge in 2021’s post-pandemic rebound. But dig deeper, and the story shifts: digital, which now accounts for 78% of total US ad spend, is growing at 7.1%, while traditional channels like TV and print lag at 2.3%. Why? Digital offers accountability—especially when tied to sales.

In uncertain times, this pro-cyclicality sharpens. During the 2008 recession, U.S. ad spend dropped nearly 18%, with discretionary channels like newspapers hit hardest (-27%), while performance-driven search ads held steady. Today, with tariffs threatening to spike retail prices, marketers are again prioritizing certainty. Retail media, projected to reach $141 billion globally in 2025, is eating share from social and display—up 18% year-over-year—because it’s tethered to transactions.

2. Why Outcomes Matter More Than Ever

Not all ad dollars are equal. A TV spot may drive reach, but a $10,000 sponsored product campaign on an RMN can drive $40,000 in sales—and prove it with closed-loop attribution. In a tariff-heavy economy, advertisers need that proof. They want a reliable return.

RMNs excel here. With first-party data—say, a shopper’s search for “winter boots” or a cart abandoned with a $50 jacket—they can target intent with laser focus. Moloco’s ML models take it further, optimizing bids in real time to hit a target ROAS or a specific cost per order.

“Outcomes shift the conversation,” a Head of Media at a mid-tier retailer told me at a recent industry conference. “We’re not selling ad slots—we’re selling incremental revenue. That’s what brands ultimately want.”

3. Retail Media’s Secret Weapon: Transactional Proximity

RMNs live where purchases happen—on product pages, in search results, at checkout. That closeness is a superpower. A shopper browsing “4K TVs” on a retailer’s site isn’t just curious—they’re in buying mode. An RMN can serve a Samsung ad, track the $800 sale, and show a 5:1 ROAS.

At a recent conference, an agency lead called out explicitly “we don’t see any reductions to budgets for commerce.” In uncertain times, the “sure bets” are where brands double down.

This matters especially as costs rise. With tariffs potentially adding $78 billion to U.S. consumer goods prices, every ad dollar needs to pull its weight. Moloco’s predictive engine adjusts campaigns on the fly—boosting bids for high-intent users, dialing back on tire-kickers—delivering 3x higher ROAS vs. legacy RMNs with static ad models. For RMNs, it’s a chance to pitch: “We don’t guess—we guarantee.”

4. The Risks of Standing Still

RMNs that cling to impression-based or CPC-based bidding models are playing a losing game. Amazon’s Retail Ad Service, launched in January 2025, already claims a growing share of U.S. retail media spend, blending onsite tech with native demand. Smaller RMNs risk irrelevance if they don’t counter with outcome-driven offerings.

The stakes are high, with many advertisers likely to shift budgets to platforms with proven ROI if RMNs don’t adapt.

5. How RMNs Can Sell Outcomes Without the Heavy Lift

Selling outcomes sounds complex, but it doesn’t have to be. Moloco’s ML-powered commerce media platform makes it seamless:

• Harness first-party data: Our models crunch search, browse, and purchase signals to predict intent.
• Offer flexible goals: Advertisers pick ROAS (e.g., 400%), CPO (e.g., $10), or other goals like “maximize sales” – our AI/ML-powered engine will adjust and optimize accordingly.
• Provide ML-based guidance and forecasting: Moloco helps advertisers set up campaigns with outcome “ranges” based on ML.
• Deliver precision at scale: While competitors enable outcome-based bidding at a full platform level (ignoring SKU/category differences), Moloco delivers outcomes at the individual campaign and SKU level—helping brands to fine-tune performance.
• Real-time inference: Our high-fidelity ML models make thousands of calculations per second, enabling target ROAS and cost-per-order optimization that others can't.
• Scale with automation: Self-serve tools and real-time bidding cut manual overhead and make it easy to manage thousands of sellers, who can launch campaigns in 3 clicks.

The Bottom Line: Certainty Is the New Currency

What will happen with tariffs in 90 days? No one knows. Inflation might climb. Consumer confidence might tank. But RMNs can sell certainty. By tying ads to outcomes, they turn economic headwinds into tailwinds, proving their worth one sale at a time.

Moloco’s ML optimizes for outcomes in real time, at a campaign/SKU level, delivering unparalleled returns for advertisers. Through millisecond-level decisions and continuous learning, our platform adapts to shifting shopper behavior instantly, maintaining performance even as market conditions change.

In a world where every cent counts, certainty isn’t just a perk—it’s the whole game. Ready to turn uncertainty into opportunity? Start with Moloco today.