AI, personalization, self-service: 6 predictions for retail media in 2025 and beyond

Disclaimer: The following insights represent the personal thoughts and perspectives of Jon Flugstad and Jason Bagg on the future of retail media.

Among the flurry of 2025 retail media predictions, one thing is clear: the race is on to build the next great ads business. Retail media networks (RMNs) now account for one-fifth of worldwide digital ad spend, according to EMARKETER. Although retail giants like Amazon and Walmart still garner the majority of market share, the growing field of RMNs shows significant growth opportunities for all major retailers and marketplaces that transcend a zero-sum game. 

Unlike marketing channels like search and social that are hyper-consolidated, retail media enables many platforms to bloom and thrive. Retailers possess unique assets that sellers still can’t find elsewhere: first-party transaction data and digital real estate at key points in the customer journey. As P&G president and CEO Jon Moeller recently summed it up, “I generally believe the majority of brand choice is made in a retail environment.”

As we look to 2025 and beyond, here are six predictions we believe will shape the future of RMNs and separate the winners from laggards in this great new third wave of digital advertising.

1. Personalization becomes retailers’ top priority

2025 will mark a decisive shift as retail media networks (RMNs) prioritize personalization to combat ad fatigue and declining relevance. A recent Harris poll found that 59% of shoppers often see the same ads repeatedly, leading to a negative experience and brand impression. 

Legacy adtech solutions have failed to deliver the one-to-one experiences that consumers expect. Fortunately, the rise of AI-powered commerce media capabilities is finally following through on this promise, leveraging the power of retailers’ first-party data to create truly relevant advertising experiences. 

Key to this transformation is the recognition that ad personalization and yield maximization are intrinsically linked. Ads better tailored to consumer preferences and behaviors naturally generate more engagement and higher yields. Our proprietary data at Moloco shows that personalized commerce media ads can boost product discoverability by as much as 10-15X, leading to greater shopper engagement and increased purchases. 

2. The renaissance of onsite RMN advertising

2025 is set to become "the year of onsite," marking a shift away from off-site expansions and back to basics on owned-and-operated properties. Brands still prioritize onsite for incremental ad spend, with formats like onsite search, display, and video ranking highest in a recent MA+C Retail Media survey. Retailers will adopt more mid-funnel ad formats, including sponsored brand and video, to create more engaging and effective onsite experiences throughout the shopping journey.

The most effective advertisements — powered by real-time ML predictions — will anticipate consumer needs, offering complementary product recommendations based on cart activity or existing purchases and enhancing the overall shopping experience. These assistive advertisements will be viewed by consumers as helpful tools rather than intrusive marketing messages.

3. Performance outcomes determine new winners

Advertisers will demand concrete performance outcomes to de-risk their media investments as economic uncertainty lingers. This shift will accelerate the adoption of outcome-based ad buying models — such as cost per order (CPO) and target return on ad spend (tROAS) — while requiring RMNs to develop sophisticated ad operations and attribution capabilities to stand out in the increasingly crowded RMN space. 

Similar to how Big Tech used AI to scale its ad businesses, many RMNs will look for tech partners that can automatically optimize campaigns towards specific ad outcomes. Leading retailers and commerce media platforms are investing in ML-powered engines that can maximize unique first-party signals, such as browse, purchase, and loyalty signals, to match the relevance and power of Meta’s Advantage+ or Google’s Performance Max. 

4. Channel growth priorities will vary by region

While onsite advertising sees renewed focus, the retail media ecosystem will also see interesting regional variations on this theme.

In the U.S., in-store retail spend is expected to reach $1 billion by 2028, representing a small but growing segment of the estimated $100 billion retail media spend. Emerging digital formats, from QR codes and video displays to in-store audio, will encourage brands to experiment with new cross-channel activations. 

Since European RMNs were early adopters of in-store ads, we'll see those networks double down on scaling onsite. The Asia-Pacific region is also maturing rapidly, with brand budgets moving into retail media and digital commerce growing more sophisticated.

If there are common trends across the map, owned direct marketing channels such as email, notifications, and messaging will also scale further, as offsite advertising faces pressure due to margin constraints. Retail media will continue converging with streaming CTV advertising as RMNs expand their "full-funnel" marketing capabilities.

5. RMN leaders invest in sales and go-to-market

More than an incremental revenue stream, retail media is becoming a core business function. Even giant e-commerce platforms like Amazon now earn over two-thirds of its operating income from ads. When every major retailer and marketplace can command a premium for their audience and data, RMN leaders must weigh the high-margin opportunity of capitalizing on its brand loyalty and onsite attention.

To capture the growing retail media revenue windfall, retailers will restructure their organizations with increased support across sales and go-to-market (GTM) capabilities. The Faustian bargain of accepting second-rate adtech for the promise of incremental demand from ad networks is becoming less attractive; the tradeoffs are too high. Retailers will make much-needed tech upgrades paired with new retail media-specific roles, and existing leadership positions will evolve to reflect the growing importance of media revenues to long-term profitability.

6. Tech makes it easy for more advertisers to buy

To fully scale their new RMN businesses, retailers are turning to outside tech partners to help streamline their ad operations and onboard more advertisers. As noted in a recent Modern Retail report, former Walmart Connect executive Drew Cashmore explained: 

“The smaller guys are trying to figure out how do they play against a well-funded tech architecture of the Walmarts and Amazons of this world. Historically, they’ve gone through this build scenario where they’re all trying to create their own toolset. What’s changed in the last year is this recognition that they need to better partner.”

Many retailers will embrace self-serve platforms, following the successful model established in marketplace advertising. This shift will democratize access to retail media opportunities and unlock efficient growth across the long tail. 

With the right commerce media platform built with AI/ML-powered automation, retailers can quickly activate hundreds or thousands of advertisers and scale their campaigns with minimal white-glove service. Put together, the revenues across this larger cohort of sellers can rival blue-chip accounts and help build a more sustainable long-term business model.

Thriving in the new outcomes era for retail media

The retail media networks of 2025 will be judged not by their feature sets or market presence but by their ability to deliver concrete advertiser outcomes through scalable, automated platforms. This is a fundamental shift from today's experimental landscape, where many retailers are still discovering what works. The most successful RMNs will combine ML-driven personalization with streamlined ad operations, turning the promise of first-party data into measurable campaign results.

For retailers, this evolution demands more than just technological investment. It requires building specialized teams that understand commerce and advertising while developing the infrastructure to support thousands of self-serve advertisers rather than just a handful of managed accounts. The retailers who recognize this shift and adapt their organizations accordingly will be the ones who transform their media networks from supplementary revenue streams into core drivers of profitability and long-term growth.