Seasonality trend analysis: Top holiday ad windows for mobile app marketers in 2024

It’s that time of year when pumpkins give way to turkeys, and before we know it, Black Friday deals are here, followed by Christmas movie marathons. For mobile app marketers, this stretch of the calendar provides the biggest opportunity to reach and convert users, and apps continue to play a bigger role every year.  

Mobile phones are consistently a top holiday gift item, with app downloads spiking as users activate their new devices. Apps are also where consumers engage the most on their phones, racking up 5.5X more minutes than the mobile web, and converting at a 157% higher average rate. 

The mobile app landscape is more dynamic and profitable than ever. Driving growth this holiday season is all about timing, tapping into vertical and regional trends, and staying ahead of the competition.

Let’s dive in.

The holiday season is getting longer and more dynamic

Campaign success during this high-stakes period requires a targeted ads strategy based on seasonal ebbs and flows. The holiday season is not a single or static moment, but rather a sequence of distinct phases, each with different consumer trends:

1. Pre-holiday (October - Late November): Nearly half of consumers get a head start on shopping as early as October. Marketers can lock in consumer attention early when competition is lower.
   
   
2. Peak holiday (Late November - December 25): During the holiday rush of Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, users spend more time and convert more on mobile apps vs. mobile web, with December leading in device activations and installs.
   
   
3. Post-holiday (December 26 - Mid-January): Often overlooked, the Q5 period, from after Christmas to mid January, sees sustained user engagement in apps in newly activated devices. Competition drops as ad campaigns taper and available ad inventory expands, dropping acquisition costs by up to 60%.

Moloco forecasts: maximize ROI with strategic holiday planning

Moloco crunched the numbers to help predict advertising trends this holiday season based on internal campaign data spanning billions of bid requests and millions of impressions. We focused on two key metrics that paint a picture of ad supply, demand, and windows of opportunity:

• CPM (cost per mille): Cost per thousand impressions, or essentially, the cost of advertising.
• Bid requests: The available inventory of ad slots in mobile app publishers.

The consumer behaviors in the three distinct holiday phases cause significant fluctuations in CPMs and bid request volumes. For example, when marketers compete for consumer attention during the peak phase, CPMs are driven higher due to more competitive auctions. On the other hand, when consumers activate new devices and download new apps, the available ad inventory expands. Before diving into the granular data, here are three key observations:

1. Pre-holiday: Typically, CPMs have yet to increase, which presents a cost-effective opportunity for marketers to lock in consumer attention as they begin their holiday planning.
2. Peak holiday: This is generally the most competitive period when CPMs begin to rise, but also when app installs and in-app purchases are at the highest point of the year.
3. Post-holiday: Q5 sees CPMs start to drop as competition decreases, yet consumers remain highly engaged with apps. This is often a key window to drive growth while making efficient use of budget. 

A global look at gaming vs. consumer trends

The holiday phases are not the same for every app. In fact, there are nuances and variations in CPM and bid requests based on verticals and regions. That’s why it’s crucial to tailor holiday marketing strategies to specific markets.

In the charts below, we highlight a few examples that illustrate vertical and regional differences, with forecasts in CPM, bid request volume, and specific windows of opportunity for marketers.

Gaming

Across the gaming vertical, CPMs are expected to rise for most regions in mid November, peak after Thanksgiving, and rise again in mid January, with variations among regions:

• U.S.: CPMs drop steeply in late November and again on Christmas, when bid requests also peak. This combination creates a large window of opportunity for cost-effective UA.
• Japan: CPMs peak around Christmas, and bid requests rise into early January. Opportunity arises in early November and Q5.
• Germany: Early drop in bid requests and late rise in CPMs require marketers to act earlier to drive efficient spend. 
• United Kingdom: Combination of low CPMs and high bid requests throughout the entire holiday season presents a wide window for cost efficiency.

Reach out to us for specific insights.

Non-gaming (consumer apps)

For consumer apps, CPMs are expected to peak for most regions in mid November and decline during Q5, with several regional differences:

• U.S.: Similar to gaming, CPMs drop significantly on Christmas at the same time that bid requests peak, forming a cost-effective Q5 period.
• France: Three windows of cost-effective user acquisition span late October, late November, and Q5.
• South Korea: CPM peaks late around Christmas, creating an additional opportunity window late November to early December.
• Australia: CPMs drop sharply before Halloween while bid requests stay high, creating a large window from mid-November through January.

Get in touch for more detailed insights.

Tactics to maximize ad performance

To maximize ROI for your holiday campaigns, below are some general best practices to keep in mind: 

Pre-holiday (October - Late November)

1. Launch campaigns early in October to capture consumer attention.
2. Turn on unattributed postbacks for new campaigns to speed up machine learning (ML) training, so that models run efficiently throughout the holiday period.
3. Launch seasonal assets at least 2 weeks before key seasonal events to allow time for the creative serving algorithm to learn and optimize.

Peak holiday (Late November - December 25)

1. Budget for higher CPMs to capitalize on the time when consumers are most engaged with apps.
2. Set deeper funnel goals like Action and ROAS to capitalize on inherently higher in-app purchase rates during this period (AppsFlyer).
3. Update creative assets like icons, logos, screenshots with on-brand holiday elements.
4. Run creative A/B tests prior to seasonal events to maximize performance during key holiday moments.

Post-holiday (December 26 - Mid-January)

1. Increase spend to take advantage of lower CPMs to capture users at a reduced cost.
2. Run re-engagement campaigns alongside standard UA campaigns to reconnect with users who may have churned after the peak holiday period. 
3. Switch to evergreen, high-performing creatives to boost brand recognition and long-term user retention.

Seize this holiday season with data-driven campaigns

Don’t get lost in the holiday rush. Instead, set up your campaigns for success by preparing and testing early, aligning internal expectations, knowing your vertical- and geo-specific trends, and doubling down on the most engaging and cost-efficient moments. 

As Moloco’s holiday data analysis shows, smartly timed ad dollars can drive higher impact across more users, at significantly lower CPMs. Learn how our platform can help you drive incremental growth on the open internet and connect with our experts today.

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